If you encounter a shiny Spheal and this happens to you, consider getting a lottery ticket

I found this tweet which I replied to at the time:

Although it involved battle RNG manipulation as Anubis explained, they outlined the chances of everything happening:

  • 1 in 8912 (assuming this was a shiny encounter without Shiny Charm or any form of chaining)
  • 1 in 636 to get Sing
  • 11 in 20 for Sing to land
  • About 3 in 10 to get all 3 sleep turns
  • 1 in 636 to get Guillotine
  • 3 in 10 for Guillotine to hit
  • 1 in 10 for Focus Band to leave the opposing Pokémon on 1HP
  • Critical capture chance unknown

That’s ropey maths but chaining them altogether, you about 0.000000000147539%. The most difficult lotto jackpot to win is the Italian SuperEnalotto jackpot which is 1 in 622,614,630 or 0.000000160612994%.

If any of those calculations are off, let me know in the comments, please don’t judge, and I’ll correct it.

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